NFL odds and picks for Week 15: Advanced computer model loving Packers and 49ers
Week 15 in the NFL will attract bets from average Joes to professional bettors. The Dallas Cowboys are field goal favorites against the Oakland Raiders on Sunday Night Football, the Carolina Panthers are favored by three over the Green Bay Packers, and the New England Patriots are three-point favorites over the Pittsburgh Steelers in a huge AFC showdown that has already seen plenty of line movement.
With so many eye-popping games and so many NFL odds on the move, you need to know what SportsLine’s advanced computer model is picking.
SportsLine’s Projection Model went 174-80-2 on straight-up NFL picks last season, better than all 98 experts tracked by NFLPickWatch — every single one. It’s again threatening to be one of the top models in 2017.
SportsLine computer picks also would have won more than 96 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool Manager leagues that made straight-up NFL picks last season and would be leading many pools again this year.
It’s fresh off a week in which it nailed Arizona’s upset over Tennessee, predicting the Cardinals‘ margin of victory within a single point. It also nailed Carolina’s huge win over the Vikings and Jacksonville’s statement win over the Seahawks. Those NFL picks helped run its straight-up record to a stunning 37-11 over the past three weeks. Anyone who has followed its picks is up big.
With Week 15 here, the computer simulated every game 10,000 times and came up with some surprising results.
One team the model loves in Week 15: the Green Bay Packers, who will get a huge boost with the return of QB Aaron Rodgers, who has been out since Week 6, but has been medically cleared to play against the Panthers on Sunday.
The model’s projected score has the Packers (+3) covering the spread, 27-25. And in fact, Green Bay wins this one straight-up almost 50 percent of the time. Even against a stingy defense, lock in the Packers as a great bet to cover the spread, or possibly win outright, in what would be a huge boost for Green Bay’s playoff chances.
The model has Rodgers passing for 239 yards and a pair of touchdowns against a Carolina’s top-10 passing defense. WR Jordy Nelson, who hasn’t topped 35 yards receiving in a game backup QB Brett Hundley has started, will find the end zone for the first time since early October.
One surprise: the San Francisco 49ers, slight favorites over Tennessee, will not only win, they’ll quadruple the 1.5-point spread in a 26-20 decision.
At just 3-10, it’d be easy to glance at the record and assume the 49ers are a disaster. But looking closer, they’ve won three of their last four. And the emergence of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who threw for 334 yards and a touchdown in a 26-16 victory at Houston last week, has the young 49ers inspired as they build for the future.
The Titans, meanwhile, are 8-5 and in the hunt in the AFC South, but they suffered a tough loss to underdog Arizona last week and have been highly inconsistent on offense. Quarterback Marcus Mariota (knee) will play, but might not be 100 percent.
The 49ers win this one straight-up 58 percent of the time and cover the spread in 56 percent of simulations, according to the model. Don’t let the records deceive you in this one and roll with the 49ers.
The model also has a strong pick you need to see for the huge AFC showdown between the Steelers and Patriots — two legitimate Super Bowl contenders — and it’s also calling for a contender to go down hard. You can only get those picks at SportsLine.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 15? Check out the NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, plus see which side of the big Steelers-Patriots game you need to be all over and find out which NFC contender goes down hard, all from the model that would have won 96 percent of football pools last season and is on a blistering 37-11 run this year, and get NFL picks from 20 experts.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-5.5, 44)
L.A. Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (+1, 46)
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+7, 40.5)
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (+7.5, 40.5)
Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings (-10.5, 42)
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 39)
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-11.5, 38.5)
Arizona Cardinals at Washington Redskins (-4.5, 41.5)
Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers (-3, 47)
New York Jets at New Orleans Saints (-16, 47.5)
L.A. Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5, 47.5)
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3, 53.5)
Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers (-1, 44.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Oakland Raiders (+3, 46)
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6, 49)