Historic Medinah Country Club outside Chicago could see plenty of fireworks this week as the top 70 in the PGA standings battle in the second leg of the 2019 FedEx Cup Playoffs. This time, the 2019 BMW Championship will take center stage. First- and second-round groupings are out, and among those to watch is the threesome of Brooks Koepka (8-1), Rory McIlroy (8-1) and Patrick Reed (25-1). The latter won last week at the Northern Trust and owns one of the earliest 2019 BMW Championship tee times at 11:48 a.m. ET on Thursday. Another star-studded group features Jon Rahm (12-1) Matt Kuchar (50-1) and Patrick Cantlay (16-1). Also keep an eye on Dustin Johnson (14-1), Justin Rose (14-1) and Webb Simpson (20-1), who tee off at 1:54 p.m. ET. And don’t forget Tiger Woods, who’s listed at 45-1 BMW Championship odds and begins at 12:54 p.m. ET. Before you lock in your golf predictions, consult the 2019 BMW Championship picks from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.

SportsLine’s prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed two of the last three majors entering the weekend. It predicted Gary Woodland’s first career major championship at the U.S. Open even though he wasn’t the favorite entering the weekend. The result: Woodland held off a late charge from Koepka and won by three strokes. The model also called Koepka’s historic victory at the 2019 PGA Championship, predicting he’d hold his lead in the home stretch. In all, their advanced computer model has nailed a whopping six majors entering the weekend, and anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now that the 2019 BMW Championship field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. One huge shocker the model is calling for: Koepka, a four-time major winner and the top favorite to win it all this week, makes a strong push but falls short of winning the title. He’s not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in a loaded 2019 BMW Championship field.

The No. 1 player in the world enters the BMW Championship 2019 as the FedEx Cup points leader after an impressive season that saw him register the most wins on Tour. Kopeka also earned eight top-10 finishes this season and finished in the top five in all four majors. 

Despite his dominant season, Koepka has never finished on top of the leaderboard in a FedEx Cup Playoff event and has struggled mightily at the BMW Championship in recent years, finishing 19th or worse in three of his last four starts. Plus, Koepka has had trouble finding the fairway off the tee this season. In fact, he enters this week’s FedEx Cup Playoffs 2019 stop ranked 85th in driving accuracy percentage (63.04), which could cause major trouble at Medinah.

Another surprise: Webb Simpson, a 20-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

Simpson ranks among the PGA’s top 20 in every strokes gained category except off the tee. He’s fifth on tour in total strokes gained, signifying that he’s in for a deep run up the 2019 BMW Championship leaderboard. With a 69.175-stroke scoring average, good for third on the PGA Tour, Simpson is a horse for any course.

Simpson is also on a strong run, recording runner-up finishes in the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, Wyndham Championship and RBC Canadian Open in his past six starts. Combine those performances with a fifth place at the Masters, an eighth place at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and a third place effort at the RSM Classic and you get the kind of consistency that is Simpson’s hallmark.

Also, the model says three other golfers with odds of 16-1 or longer will make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big.

So who wins the second tournament of the FedEx Cup Playoffs 2019? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full 2019 BMW Championship projected leaderboard from the model that’s nailed six golf majors heading into the weekend, and find out.

Brooks Koepka 8-1
Rory McIlroy 8-1
Jon Rahm 12-1
Dustin Johnson 14-1
Justin Rose 14-1
Justin Thomas 14-1
Patrick Cantlay 16-1
Adam Scott 20-1
Webb Simpson 20-1
Tommy Fleetwood 25-1
Patrick Reed 25-1
Paul Casey 33-1
Rickie Fowler 33-1
Hideki Matsuyama 33-1
Jordan Spieth 33-1
Tony Finau 40-1
Louis Oosthuizen 40-1
Xander Schauffele 40-1
Bryson DeChambeau 45-1
Tiger Woods 45-1
Jason Day 50-1
Matt Kuchar 50-1
Ian Poulter 50-1


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