NFL odds, picks for Divisional Round: Proven computer model backing Under in Chargers vs. Patriots
The NFL Divisional schedule kicks off with a star-studded showdown between Patrick Mahomes and Andrew Luck. The two quarterbacks combined to throw for 89 touchdowns in the regular season, the most ever in a playoff matchup. The Chiefs enter Saturday’s AFC Divisional Round in snowy Kansas City as a five-point favorite. Meanwhile, the other AFC matchup will pit Tom Brady vs. Philip Rivers, two of the most prolific quarterbacks of their generation. Even with frigid temperatures, New England remains a four-point favorite, down a half-point from where the line opened. If you believe the latest NFL odds and spreads, Chargers vs. Patriots will be the closest game of the weekend. Whether you’re searching for value in one of those NFL odds, or looking to back the Rams (-7) against the Cowboys or the Saints (-8) against the Eagles, be sure to check out the latest NFL picks and playoff predictions for the Divisional Round from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
SportsLine’s proprietary computer model went 176-80 straight up last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and ’17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018-19, entering the divisional round on a blistering 16-6 run. For the season, it is now 30-15 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 78-49. It also went 170-84 on straight-up NFL picks during the regular season, ranking inside the top 10 on NFLPickWatch.com. Additionally, it hit all four NFL against the spread picks on Wild Card Weekend. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now it has examined the latest divisional round NFL odds and lines, simulated every snap 10,000 times, and its NFL picks and predictions are in. One of the top divisional round NFL picks the model recommends: Go over (48.5) in the Saturday night NFC showdown between the Cowboys and Rams.
The Cowboys have gone over in their past two games with room to spare, including clearing it by a whopping 32.5 points in the regular-season finale against the Giants. Their offense has exceeded expectations recently, while the Rams boast the No. 2 scoring offense in the NFL. That combination gives this matchup a strong chance to hit the 50s. In fact, SportsLine’s model is calling for 52 total points, clearing the over in more than half of simulations. It also says one side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time, a pick you can only see at SportsLine
Another one of the divisional round NFL predictions from the model: The under (47.5) hits when the Chargers visit the Patriots on Sunday at 1:05 p.m. ET.
The Patriots vs. Chargers forecast has been a major topic of conversation this week. While the potential for snow has subsided, frigid temperatures are still expected at kickoff in New England. That doesn’t bode well for the Chargers, who play their home games in California where it’s in the 60s. In fact, in Philip Rivers’ last three starts in cold weather (less than 40 degrees), he’s completed just 55.3 percent of his passes for four touchdowns and six interceptions.
New England’s defense is also substantially better at home, allowing just 17.9 points compared to 24.0 outside of Gillette Stadium. Plus, the under has hit in four of New England’s last five home games. The model projects that trend to continue on Sunday, as the Under hits in almost 55 percent of its simulations.
The model also has a strong NFL against the spread picks for all four divisional round games, and is calling for a top Super Bowl contender to go down hard this weekend, shaking up the NFL playoff picture forever.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence during the NFL’s divisional round? And which top Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-5, 56.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angles Rams (-7, 48.5)
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots (-4, 47.5)
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-8, 51.5)