2020 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Top 150 rankings for dynasty leagues
The emphasis in dynasty leagues tends to be prospects, but it should actually be winning, right? That’s what makes a dynasty, after all. It’s not a team that goes all-in for one big win after years of losing, but one that sustains success year after year.
More than prospects (which, technically speaking, aren’t winning anyone anything), the key to sustaining success is a young core. Now, maybe that young core starts out as prospects, but fashioning a young core from scratch is a higher-risk, lower-fulfillment approach. Sometimes it’s made necessary by untenable circumstances, but ideally, prospects exist more to supplement and sustain an existing core.
What I’m saying is you shouldn’t underestimate the value of proven-ness when assembling your dynasty league team. True, other factors like keeper cost may come into play, but all things being equal, a minor-leaguer isn’t inherently more valuable than a major-leaguer, especially a young one who himself has upside.
But I acknowledge it can be tricky weighing present needs against future hopes and certainty against upside, and it’s never one-size-fits-all. Still, I’ve attempted to simplify it, at least for the top 150, by considering these three factors:
- Present value: What a player is expected to be in 2020
- Future value: What his peak looks like and how much peak he has left
- Confidence rating: How confident I am in him meeting his immediate and long-term value
Each factor is measured on a 1-to-5 score, with five being the best, and a player’s ranking is primarily determined by adding the scores. Ties typically go to the younger player, but personal preference plays a role as well. The distinctions become less evident further down the list, so at some point subjectivity has to reign.
Top 150 for dynasty leagues